The incredible extending Early Bird Special

[pdtpoet]

First there were 500 (and I jumped in...#329)

Then there were 999...

I just carefully watched the number shrink to 6 and then magically increase to 99 (!!!)

Should we have a pool to determine how long this goes on???

And today (Nov 13), briefly, the number went to zero and the "Early Bird" for $549 disappeared and the price went to $599 (25% discount).  A few people bought. And now, just a few hours into it, the "Early Bird Special" is BACK, price back to $549...and now it says "only 74 left."

I guess we should now call this the "appearing and disappearing Early Bird Special..."?

[Daniel W]

First there were 500 (and I jumped in...#329)
Then there were 999...
I just carefully watched the number shrink to 6 and then magically increase to 99 (!!!)
Should we have a pool to determine how long this goes on???

After 500, there were 750, then 999. And yeah, earlier today, only 7 were left, yet now there are are 97. My bet was on 999 in total, so I've already lost. Maybe they added ninety-something more to keep the Early Bird offer going for at least the first week of funding. Or maybe they're just trying to keep the ball rolling for as long as they can. I think the limiting factor will be how many devices the factory can build in the first batch, as the "Early Bird" devices still has an estimated May delivery. Not that I really expect that estimation to hold, nor that I am in any particular hurry.

[andrewl]

I am wondering if it is now safe to order and avoid the first production batch.

As a rule I try not to be,first, preferring to buy when production teething problems have been found and addressed..

Is it too soon or safe yet?

[Daniel W]

I am wondering if it is now safe to order and avoid the first production batch.

As a rule I try not to be,first, preferring to buy when production teething problems have been found and addressed..

Is it too soon or safe yet?

You could try sending an email to hello@planetcom.co.uk and ask how large they expect the first batch to be. If so, please tell us their answer, if any (they're likely quite busy right now), and I suppose, at this point, they don't know for sure anyway.

Based on an Early Gemini update, the target for the first Gemini batch was 2000 devices, the first 1000 of which ended up without eSIM, the wrong SoC and some keyboard irregularities spread seemingly at random among early units - though mine works fine, with a piece of sticky tape in the right place. They've said they're working with the same factory this time, so we can deduce it has capacity for a first batch of at least 2000 devices, though any glitches are of course more likely earlier in the run.

When 6 out of 999 Early Bird units were left to back, they hiked the number to 99, so as of now, there are 999 - 6 + 99 = 1092 Early Bird units, of which 1053 are claimed right now. Adding 17 packs of two and two packs of five = 1097 backed units with an estimated delivery of May 2019. When the Early Bird offer briefly ran out, before they increased the offer from 500 to 750 units, the "regular" $599 crowdfunding offer that appeared, had an estimated delivery of June 2019, just like the Gold Edition.

Taken together, that would suggest they plan a first batch, likely covering all Early Bird units as well as the packs of two or five. My guess would thus be that all Early Bird units will be made in the first batch. If you feel a need to stay clear of the first batch, I'd suggest you wait until there's an offering with a later estimated delivery date than the Early Bird units, though that may mean your device will cost a tad more.

My personal opinion is that whatever issues aren't found in the first 500-1000 units are likely things not apparent in the factory (like hinges getting loose over time) so to avoid "production teething problems", I'd say you're good now, but I am know to have been wrong more than once.

[Daniel W]

Well... now the Early Bird actually seems sold out for real. My guess that they wanted to keep them available throughout the first week, appears to have been correct. The final number of Early Bird Cosmos seems to be 1111, so somewhere along the 999 (-6) + 99, they must have sneaked another 19 in at some point.

Anyway, now anybody wanting to avoid possible first batch issues should be clear to back their devices, for an estimated "June" delivery. It's still possible to get the 31% discount by ganging up with one or four friends, but then you'll likely get first batch devices, should that concern you (my X25 Gemini works just fine).

[pdtpoet]

Well... now the Early Bird actually seems sold out for real. My guess that they wanted to keep them available throughout the first week, appears to have been correct. The final number of Early Bird Cosmos seems to be 1111, so somewhere along the 999 (-6) + 99, they must have sneaked another 19 in at some point.

Anyway, now anybody wanting to avoid possible first batch issues should be clear to back their devices, for an estimated "June" delivery. It's still possible to get the 31% discount by ganging up with one or four friends, but then you'll likely get first batch devices, should that concern you (my X25 Gemini works just fine).

The "Early Bird Special" with May delivery just returned (Nov 13, 7:00 PM New York City Time).!!

[Daniel W]

The "Early Bird Special" with May delivery just returned (Nov 13, 7:00 PM New York City Time).!!

Indeed... so much for me thinking I understood their reasoning. I'd better stop guessing and just watch, it seems. As of now, they are offering both the "~May 2019 $549 Cosmo Early-bird Special" and the "~June 2019 $599 Cosmo Special". The latter might be the better option for those keen on avoiding the first batch, I suppose.

I think we can be fairly certain they were a bit surprised by the initial demand, with the first Early-bird offer clearing out in mere hours. Past the first 750 or so units, they were possibly surprised again by how sharply the rate of new backers fell. Currently it seems down to a few dozen a day. Reasonably, that number will keep tapering for the rest of the crowdfunding period, possibly with humps when getting media attention, and in the last day, when those still hesitant makes up their minds.

As of now, 1200-ish Cosmos are backed. Unless I'm wrong again, the first Gemini batch was 2000 units. Presuming (oh-oh... guessing again...) the "Estimated May delivery" production is planned to be of equal size, with 22 days left, they'd need three dozen new backers a day on average to fill that first batch. To make that happen, they may have to keep the Early-bird offer running. If so, this might be going on for a while. Other than that, I fail to see their logic, if any. Maybe they're just stressed out right now and acting a bit erratically.

Their on-off-and-on-again approach, seems to be attracting some flak in the indiegogo comments. Can't really see the logic there either. Those who already got the Early-bird Special might feel a bit cheated upon, if it wasn't so special after all, maybe? Some might worry that the seemingly ever-extending offer might cause final delivery to slip. I'd rather think that the sooner they can tell the factory that they've filled the first run, the more likely (less unlikely?) delivery on time will be, but I've obviously been wrong before.

[andrewl]

I don't know why people are complaining about the extending early bird deal, what does it matter to them?  If Planet ship Cosmo in (mostly) backer order they they will be first in the queue to get the ropey first production run ones