Author Topic: Estimation of Astro shipment based on Cosmo Campaign  (Read 532 times)

makoshark

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Estimation of Astro shipment based on Cosmo Campaign
« on: October 03, 2021, 01:26:20 am »
I created Astro estimated event dates based on Cosmo campaign.

It looks like PR1 samples were introduced on 7/12/19 for Cosmo.
For Astro, this date was 9/5/21.

PR1 Samples: Cosmo-07/12/19 >> Astro-09/05/21

PR2 Production Run: Cosmo-08/16/19 >> Astro-10/10/21
Production Start: Cosmo-09/03/19 >> Astro-10/28/21
GMS Approval: Cosmo-09/06/19 >> Astro-10/31/21
Ready for Assembly: Cosmo-09/18/19 >> Astro-11/12/21
First Mass Production: Cosmo-09/26/19 >> Astro-11/20/21
Start to Ship: Cosmo-10/12/19 >> Astro-12/06/21
Backers from Japan, USA: Cosmo-11/15/19 >> Astro-01/09/22
On the way to Europe(Germany, UK): Cosmo-11/22/19 >> Astro-01/16/22
3500 out of 4000 Produced, 80% of Backers received Cosmo-12/09/19 >> Astro-02/02/22

I am hoping much earlier schedule for Astro, but if it goes similar timeline, many of backers will receive Astro Dec 2021 - Jan 2022.




Daniel W

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Re: Estimation of Astro shipment based on Cosmo Campaign
« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2021, 02:51:02 pm »
Add to that further post-Covid delays, the ongoing electricity shortage in China, the general chip shortage and the Chinese New Year in early February, and the Astro might end up a full year late... :P

I did some similar, though cruder, estimations for the Cosmo, https://www.oesf.org/forum/index.php?topic=35829 and it ended up arriving much later than my estimations. While it would be nice to get it before Christmas, as long as my Cosmo works, I am in no real hurry this time (getting by on a Gemini while waiting for a Cosmo was painful, though). That said, I do look forward to not needing the CoDi, perhaps finally getting a working compass and a better camera.

ArchiMark

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Re: Estimation of Astro shipment based on Cosmo Campaign
« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2021, 08:01:47 pm »
Based upon PC's update today, that production should start after the Chinese holidays, so about October 10th....

I guessing we'll be lucky to see our Astro's by Christmas....and might be after New Year........

So it goes.....

 :D

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Zarhan

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Re: Estimation of Astro shipment based on Cosmo Campaign
« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2021, 05:13:52 am »
That said, I do look forward to not needing the CoDi, perhaps finally getting a working compass and a better camera.

The camera issue was addressed by Shuntcap's custom builds of the camera software. The primary feature I'm interested in would be better speech quality for phone calls...

makoshark

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Re: Estimation of Astro shipment based on Cosmo Campaign
« Reply #4 on: October 04, 2021, 09:31:11 pm »
I did some similar, though cruder, estimations for the Cosmo, https://www.oesf.org/forum/index.php?topic=35829 and it ended up arriving much later than my estimations.

I saw your post.  It looks like you have more details and added the actual result!!
I will put the actual dates if I have time, too.

I am currently using Blackberry KeyOne and planning to use Astro as a daily driver. 
I wish I can get Astro before Christmas...


Daniel W

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Re: Estimation of Astro shipment based on Cosmo Campaign
« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2021, 07:44:36 am »
The camera issue was addressed by Shuntcap's custom builds of the camera software.
While Shuntcaps lovely custom builds alleviated multiple quality issues, they are, by neccesity, rather basic, lacking even white balance control, and the viewfinder is, for technical reasons, pretty slow. I am, however, mainly looking forward to better camera hardware, with better optical resolution, faster and more accurate focus, better dynamic range etc. A main camera module clearly surpassing my 2013 Samsung would be nice.

Oh, well, I'm getting off topic. Would mass production actually begin on Monday (October 11), we could perhaps push all the estimated dates 17 days earlier (than October 28), but as I read Update #40, Planet will place the order for mass production on Monday, not actually begin mass production, so I think the actual date when the factory begins assembling Astros for backers, might remain to be determined. That said, I'd love to be wrong.

Daniel W

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Re: Estimation of Astro shipment based on Cosmo Campaign
« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2021, 09:53:34 am »
The Astro update #43 (10/27/21) provided these "guesstimates"
16th November - All materials arrive for PCB mass production - many have already arrived
End of November - Astro PCB mass production
30th November - All materials to arrive for Astro Assembly
1st half of December - Astro Assembly and packaging
Mid-December - 1st Shipment of Astro Slide from factory to Planet warehouse

Fitting the events above, as best as I could, to makoshark's milestones, gave me these earliest possible dates:
(PCB) Production Start: Cosmo-09/03/19 >> Astro-10/28/21 >> #43-11/16/21
GMS Approval: Cosmo-09/06/19 >> Astro-10/31/21 >> #43-ongoing as of 11/05/21
Ready for Assembly: Cosmo-09/18/19 >> Astro-11/12/21 >> #43-11/30/21
First Mass Production: Cosmo-09/26/19 >> Astro-11/20/21 >> #43-12/01/21
Start to Ship: Cosmo-10/12/19 >> Astro-12/06/21 >> #43-12/16/21

By "earliest possible" I mean that the "End of November" Astro PCB mass production cannot possibly begin earlier than 11/16/21, when the required materials are expected to have arrived, and will likely not begin until a few days later. Likewise, the factory cannot possibly be ready for assembly earlier than 11/30/21, when the materials for that are expected to have arrived, and will likely need a few more days to set everything up. Further, shipments from their warehouse cannot possibly begin earlier than "mid December", when the first shipment to the warehouse is expected, and will, based on the Gemini and Cosmo, not begin until a week or two later. December 16 isn't specifically mentioned by Planet anywhere, I just picked that as the middle of December.

One date to keep in mind might be Saturday 01/29/22, which, as far as I know, is the last working day before the, certainly well deserved, Chinese New Year holidays. New Year's Eve is on Monday 01/31/22 and on Tuesday 02/01/21, the year of the Water Tiger begins. What hasn't left China by 01/29, isn't likely to go anywhere until after the Lantern Festival on Tuesday 02/15/22.







« Last Edit: November 05, 2021, 10:00:40 am by Daniel W »

Daniel W

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Re: Estimation of Astro shipment based on Cosmo Campaign
« Reply #7 on: Today at 03:09:00 pm »
Update #45 says that (empty) printed circuit board manufacturing is "slightly delayed" due to Covid. PCB components mounting is moved to mid-December, immediately followed by packaging and assembly. The factory still expects to ship the first units to Planet before Christmas, who will immediately ship them onward to backers. That could, if accurate, mean approximately this:

First Mass Production: Cosmo-09/26/19 >> Astro-11/20/21 >> #45-12/16/21
Start to Ship: Cosmo-10/12/19 >> Astro-12/06/21 >> #45-12/23/21

Though I'd love to be wrong, I do personally, at this point, given how absolutely choked both international and domestic logistics tends to be around Christmas, not expect one single backer to receive their mass produced Astro in 2021, and I suspect some of the less common keyboard layouts will, again, get caught up in the CNY.