Author Topic: How I Think Linux Will Succeed  (Read 5800 times)

Snappy

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How I Think Linux Will Succeed
« on: June 05, 2007, 01:10:00 am »
Before I go into how I think Linux will succeed, let me point out the obvious opposite of how it will not, or at least how it will take longer to succeed than it should.

Linux users are somehow so filled with angst with MS that practically every article they write, they either 1) poke fun at old problems that Windows had or 2) bash Windows for having the largest share of PC's OS market or 3) Both. If these writers were to spend more time writing How-To Guides to teach non-linux users on how to use Linux, I think more users would use linux instead. That is how it will take longer and how it will be faster respectively.

For the most part, oesf folks are quite atypical linux users in that they don't do that much MS bashing. Instead, they focus on what's important: Discussing and developing solutions to fellow user problems. Some also dedicate their time, money and effort into writing How-Tos, Install Guides etc for everyone else out of good-will.

When I read 86 Mac Plus Vs 07 AMD DualCore, I thought there would be some interesting findings. I myself like to use older machines as for one, they are way more affordable, and for two, ... I don't need raw power to do 3D rendering and the likes. So when I dove into the article, I went in expecting some proper side-by-side comparison showing how most people can perhaps use a 'slower' machine and actually not really suffer that much of a loss in usability nor productivity. Instead of that, I witness yet another MS bashing by a linux fanboy who masqueraded his article with a benign "86 Mac Plus Vs 07 AMD DualCore" title.

It's sad that Linux with all it's simplicity in design and sophistication in features, the best that its unofficial PR folks can do is write yet another "Let's Bash MS" article. I say enough already. Stop whining about MS or mention how MS is blooated and all. Linux is good enough in its own right. It does not need that comparison.

So here's the deal. I like Linux, and I hope it wins. I don't know how it will win or what it means for it to win. Does it mean it must occupy 80% or > 50% of desktop OS to qualify as a win? Or does it mean it must hang around long enough for Windows to go bust? I don't know. I think it has already won in some areas. Dell is putting Ubuntu in their machines. Acer and others are offering linux flavors. Others will follow. Hopefully chipset makers will free up more drivers to the community. This is a win. This is a beach-head that I believe will allow the next wave to happen. For a more wide-spread take-up.

I think it will happen. But I rather it happen without the mud-slinging.
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« Last Edit: June 05, 2007, 12:49:28 pm by Snappy »
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pgas

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« Reply #1 on: June 05, 2007, 01:48:03 am »
Quote
For the most part, oesf folks are quite atypical linux users in that they don't do that much MS bashing. Instead, they focus on what's important: Discussing and developing solutions to fellow user problems. Some also dedicate their time, money and effort into writing How-Tos, Install Guides etc for everyone else out of good-will.

What the heck are you talking about?
How can you say that there are more articles about windows bashing than documentation about Linux??
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pelrun

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« Reply #2 on: June 05, 2007, 01:56:51 am »
Hang on, what? Did this really need a second thread? Especially since it comes across as a blatant troll - the article itself (comments do not count!) doesn't mention Linux at all, and it is comparing Microsoft apps on BOTH platforms, not MS-vs-something else.

The article is an indictment of the current state of software bloat, not an anti-MS rant; it even says so in the very first word. The only test done which wasn't a straight MS product to MS product comparison was explicitly included "just for fun".

Please, enough with the linux-basher-bashing.
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Da_Blitz

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« Reply #3 on: June 05, 2007, 05:11:54 am »
should we just put both posts in the off topic section?

perhaps i should have made a better joke in the other topic
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« Reply #4 on: June 05, 2007, 07:00:14 am »
Quote
So here's the deal. I like Linux, and I hope it wins. I don't know how it will win or what it means for it to win.

The problem with most people is that they think something must win and other must therefore loose.
They always, as you mentioned it, forget to define the term "win". Mostly they simply mean "If I win, I am here and you are gone" without thinking any further.

So I highly recommend to refrain from this "win/loose" scheme and instead define some sharp targets like
- 10% market share on mobile devices until 12/2009
- 5 major players (HP, Dell, ...) additionally offer their PDAs with Linux to a price not 10% higher than the Windows price
- 10 startups are founded to deliver Linux based devices which satisfy the following customer needs

Then you can start and make a business plan with the steps to accomplish (setup sophisticated GUI, initiate user scenarios, improve usability, evangelize, etc.). And then follow the plan. Currently I can not see such a plan but a number of smaller efforts which are losely consolidated.

Show me a business plan which states "we win" at the summary and I will tell you how long it will last- at least not very long.

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pelrun

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« Reply #5 on: June 05, 2007, 10:03:47 am »
Quote
should we just put both posts in the off topic section?
[div align=\"right\"][a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=162590\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a][/div]

Seems appropriate, this doesn't seem to have anything to do with the Z.
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Snappy

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« Reply #6 on: June 05, 2007, 12:47:46 pm »
Quote
Quote
For the most part, oesf folks are quite atypical linux users in that they don't do that much MS bashing. Instead, they focus on what's important: Discussing and developing solutions to fellow user problems. Some also dedicate their time, money and effort into writing How-Tos, Install Guides etc for everyone else out of good-will.

What the heck are you talking about?
How can you say that there are more articles about windows bashing than documentation about Linux??
[div align=\"right\"][a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=162580\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a][/div]

pgas:
Honestly ... I think I commented on how oesf folks focus on what's important, ie writing How-Tos, Install Guides etc and more, and that they (we) don't do that much MS bashing. I do however, apologize if it made you conclude otherwise, after all, I really did not do a thorough scientific survey of linux articles. Maybe it's just my luck that I keep reading such ones.

pelrun:
Yes, you are right. Sometimes rereading our own post a day later reveals wonders! So yes, enough of anti-bashing-bashing.

Quote
We also didn't want to overly embarrass the AMD by comparing the time it takes to install the OS vs. the old Mac. The Mac's average of about a minute is dwarfed by the approximately one hour install time of Windows XP Pro

On rereading the article, I think I got carried away more with some of the comments than the article itself.  ... The above is about the only para that might remotely constitute Win-bashing.

And in hindsight, I'm not even sure if the author is a linux user, though if he is a Mac OSX user, then that makes him one anyway.
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desertrat

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« Reply #7 on: June 05, 2007, 02:54:48 pm »
Quote
And in hindsight, I'm not even sure if the author is a linux user, though if he is a Mac OSX user, then that makes him one anyway.
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Cresho

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« Reply #8 on: June 05, 2007, 03:07:01 pm »
all I know is I can use Macintosh OS X Terminal just as easily as the Terminal for linux.  Why is dos so different?
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gr8ful

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« Reply #9 on: June 05, 2007, 03:30:35 pm »
Interesting thread, and I do believe Linux will succeed.  Defining success [ofels :-)] as 30% market penetration as a desktop OS (pulled number out of air, but I believe possible in the future) and 50% or better as the OS of choice for handheld devices such as the MIDs, UMPCs, highend PDAs.

Linux is proven and getting better in the server market and gaining a foothold in phones, handhelds, and now even desktops (Dell).  It appears that Linux is here to stay, but I don't see it driving MS out of business.

Real success for Linux, in my opinion, will be when business software makers are forced to develop a Linux version of their product in order to be competitive or risk alienating a large customer base.  That is obviously not the case today, but I believe that day is coming and sooner than some may think.
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Capn_Fish

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« Reply #10 on: June 05, 2007, 03:49:43 pm »
Linux already has succeeded. It is a perfectly usable, portable, highly configurable, free OS.
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ZDevil

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« Reply #11 on: June 05, 2007, 04:24:05 pm »
Quote
Linux already has succeeded. It is a perfectly usable, portable, highly configurable, free OS.
[div align=\"right\"][a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=162634\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a][/div]

Interesting conclusion. Now the scenario is:
The Windows barbarian falls short in many respects when compared to Linux/Unix (including Mac OS X), but will very likely remain the majority OS for years to come.
The multitude of Linux/Unix small tribes are much more solid, secure, cost-effective and appealing to many idealists, but are together sharing only a thin slice of the cake.
So who wins? Or to put it in a trickier way, who is winning and who is losing?
« Last Edit: June 05, 2007, 04:27:57 pm by ZDevil »

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kopsis

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« Reply #12 on: June 05, 2007, 07:00:52 pm »
Quote
So who wins? Or to put it in a trickier way, who is winning and who is losing?
[div align=\"right\"][a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=162636\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a][/div]

The users win  I use OS X, Linux, and Windows on a variety of different machines (and different types of machines) on a daily basis. All have their own individual strengths and weaknesses. If one tool is not right for the job, I can pick another. Choice is good for me, and the competition to be the "best" choice breeds better products.

If Microsoft imploded tomorrow and Linux instantly took over the desktop market (let's assume Apple refused to license OS X for Wintel boxes) then the first thing that would happen is that Linux would splinter into a hundred different incompatible forks. Uniting against a common "enemy" has done wonders to force the Linux community to work together. Take that away and the fragmentation and in-fighting would be a spectacle like nothing we've ever seen. It's a shame that all the zealots miss out on the wonderful irony of this weird symbiotic relationship between Microsoft and Linux.

The reality is that no one is going to topple Microsoft from their dominant position in the PC world. The only thing Microsoft has to worry about is the thing that took down IBM -- a computing paradigm shift that made their dominance largely irrelevant. And oddly enough Linux needs to fear that too. The PC revolution didn't help DEC or Ahmdal or Data General (IBM's competitors). It helped a tiny little company no one had ever heard of that was smart/lucky enough to ride the wave of a new technology. Enjoy this show while it lasts, because in 50 years there will be a new "winner" and it's unlikely to be one of the current contestants.
« Last Edit: June 05, 2007, 07:03:19 pm by kopsis »

Meanie

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« Reply #13 on: June 05, 2007, 08:35:50 pm »
Quote
Quote
So who wins? Or to put it in a trickier way, who is winning and who is losing?
[div align=\"right\"][a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=162636\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a][/div]

The users win  I use OS X, Linux, and Windows on a variety of different machines (and different types of machines) on a daily basis. All have their own individual strengths and weaknesses. If one tool is not right for the job, I can pick another. Choice is good for me, and the competition to be the "best" choice breeds better products.

If Microsoft imploded tomorrow and Linux instantly took over the desktop market (let's assume Apple refused to license OS X for Wintel boxes) then the first thing that would happen is that Linux would splinter into a hundred different incompatible forks. Uniting against a common "enemy" has done wonders to force the Linux community to work together. Take that away and the fragmentation and in-fighting would be a spectacle like nothing we've ever seen. It's a shame that all the zealots miss out on the wonderful irony of this weird symbiotic relationship between Microsoft and Linux.

The reality is that no one is going to topple Microsoft from their dominant position in the PC world. The only thing Microsoft has to worry about is the thing that took down IBM -- a computing paradigm shift that made their dominance largely irrelevant. And oddly enough Linux needs to fear that too. The PC revolution didn't help DEC or Ahmdal or Data General (IBM's competitors). It helped a tiny little company no one had ever heard of that was smart/lucky enough to ride the wave of a new technology. Enjoy this show while it lasts, because in 50 years there will be a new "winner" and it's unlikely to be one of the current contestants.
[div align=\"right\"][a href=\"index.php?act=findpost&pid=162651\"][{POST_SNAPBACK}][/a][/div]

well said!
as a user, i don't care who makes the software or hardware as long as i can change it in a way that suits my needs and we all know that there is no such thing as one size fits all concept in software and hardware...
« Last Edit: June 05, 2007, 08:36:37 pm by Meanie »
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adf

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« Reply #14 on: June 06, 2007, 12:03:05 am »
I'm really not sure that's all there is to it. Sharing music and that sort of thing aside, there is a real philosophical and political component to FOSS that makes a difference in the world, I think. There  is more to digital communication than simply selecting the tools, though I agree in that regard the competition is a very good thing. Technical development (as in why the GNU foundation started), the availability of tools to those without loads of disposable cash, might actually be more important in the long run than which program we pick for a particular job today. (do you think the OLPC would ever have started if there had been no GNU or Linux? Do you think that an MS version would be anything but an addiction setup, if against all odds it had happened?)
I think, in partial agreement, that there is a symbiotic relationship between commercial technology, the economics of digital technology use and development, and FOSS.  Certainly there is a need for "it works like my toaster" appliances, and a need to actually employ developers and support people. On the other hand, there really isn't a need for for the sort of evil empire monopolies we are currently seeing.  Microsoft and others running about threatening lawsuits--profit by litigation, bogus (clandestinely paid) analysts and action groups, and bewildered, bamboozled, benighted, and coercive courts and government agencies employed ill-conceived and outdated policies (like U.S. copyright) aren't actually good in any way. Things could conceivably be worse, certainly, but that isn't much of an argument. This doesn't mean I think there should be no MS.  I don't actually care one way or the other.  I do care about corrupting the laws and the government, or about artificially limiting technical growth to control "market share."
You'll notice I didn't focus on linux, but rather on FOSS/GNU. I think that is the issue, and linux is just an aspect. Take away MS , and Apple, with a wave of the magic wand. Let linux shatter into a million projects. Something will still work--like debian, or the BSDs... and somethiing much like OSX would appear quite quickly, I suspect, and there would be the commercial monolith.  The techno-juridical thugs produced by organizations like MS, and, probably the RIAA (though I really don't want to get into the dicsussion of copyright and entertainment media here), like the big business thugs from other industries, like oil, are simply inexcusable. My government's cooperation with said thugs is likewise unfortunate, and has cost us lives and a war, in the case of oil. Certainly the techno-thugs have had a more subtle effect, but possibly a long lasting one regarding the future of free speech communication and innovation?
At any rate, I claim copyright to the  possibility of opposing this view in any possible written form, by having anticipated it in this claim. If I had a few billion to blow I could sacrifice a few unfortunates who lacked the money to oppose me in court and sure scare a lot of people away from disagreeing with me, couldn't I? What if I were a governenment?.  
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