Is The Z, Archos Pma, Etc Dead?

[nilch]

Yes, but UMPCs aren't doing very well. I've never seen a UMPC out in the wild -- the smallest laptop I've seen is a Libretto. The masses just aren't geeky enough to spend that kind of money on something when they could get a laptop for much less. Maybe in 20 years everyone will have a very small UMPC that does everything they need and then they can just hook it up to a docking station when they get home and use it as a full PC. But that day has not come, and right now all of these gadgets are for geeks. There just isn't a market for it yet.
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I am not so sure ... if there are 4-5 companies bringing out UMPC's or UMPC styled PDA's, then surely its not for geeks anymore. You can bet your dollar that so many comanies will not be making products (or experimenting even) for a market whose time has not come yet. Yes, I do agree that not too many people are buying yet - thats mainly because of the price factor - but the day a UMPC breaks the $1000  barrier, it won't be too much more for it to become a consumer product.

Yes on the other hand the converged device like the smartphone (a PDA+phone) is more of a mass market product now. It must have taken some time for it to become so, cause many people did say that a phone and a camera and a pda  - an all in one device - just wouldn't work. It was too complex for notmal people.

20 years you say - I am sure that's just figurative speech.

Of course I am not future teller either and I could be dead wrong.

[T3_slider]

Haha, your point about the phone+PDA converged device just reminded me why standalone PDAs are now dieing. The dumb masses don't realize that the more devices converge the crappier each function gets. My mom insists on having a DVD/VCR converged device (granted it's hard to find a quality VCR that doesn't contain a DVD player). But when you have a huge high-definition TV, you get way better quality if you buy a good standalone DVD player with more outputs than just component and S-video. (By the way, I'm not calling my mom stupid -- just technologically illiterate)

Perhaps when there is a UMPC/PDA/phone/television/toaster that fits in your pocket (and doesn't burn the toast) more people will buy UMPCs, but not until then. (Another problem, again relating to my technologically illiterate mother -- I'm always told that the screen on my Z is too small. It would be the same problem with UMPCs until they master that roll-out screen)

[edit]And yes, 20 years was just a made-up date. I tried to make it later in the future than I would think possible and for good reason. They said by 2000 we would live like the Jetsons. In the movie 2010: The year we make contact (or whatever it's called) their spaceships are like those in Star Trek (No, I'm not a Trekkie. I hate that show -- and I definitely don't speak Klingon). Although I can't deny that in 2010 we will have that kind of space technology because it is only 2007, I am, needless to say, VERY doubtful that we will have that technology in 3 years. Yes, basically I'm trying to cover my butt.[/edit]

[desertrat]

To still be alive, a PDA or PDAphone need to have customers, faithful customers,  good press with good review and companies working on solutions arround it.

Agree.

- Press and reviews show how the product works. They show you how the device can be useful. They bring you news of the market and show you how to solve your every day needs. They even create new expectations on hardware and software.

In theory that is what ought to be happening. In practice, most of the so-called "reviews" you read on the web (I haven't bought paper magazines for years so no comments on that medium) are little more than a product description. Very often they "review" pre-production products and state that they "expect any shortcomings will be fixed by the time the product is released", however the chances are that those shortcomings are still there in the released product. These same "reviewers" probably don't even update their "review" for the released product. Let alone conduct long term tests whereby they use the product extensively over a period of time so they can uncover any flaws a user might expect to encounter when using the product on a day to day basis.

The press has similar expectation than advanced users. They also react like your Joe six packs. Even if they have advanced skills, they will think about their audience first. Mainly they want to have useful devices and want to report to Joe six packs (the one that bring them money)

Pah!  Most are only concerned with getting in the latest machines/gadgets/devices for "review". When the average guy in the street buys a device I think it's reasonable to assume that they will use it for a good few years. However these so-called reviewers probably change their devices more often than their underpants, leaving them no time to actually understand and use the device they're writing about.

[desertrat]

I am not so sure ... if there are 4-5 companies bringing out UMPC's or UMPC styled PDA's, then surely its not for geeks anymore. You can bet your dollar that so many comanies will not be making products (or experimenting even) for a market whose time has not come yet.

The wince machines have always had quite a number of manufacturers making them, however it wasn't until Palm stumbled that the wince machines finally started to make headway and eventually dominate.

And there's always M$'s underhand tactics to consider. They could very well be using "marketing" dollars to bribe manufacturers to make these UMPCs even though most models never sell enough to make a profit.

[nilch]

I am not so sure ... if there are 4-5 companies bringing out UMPC's or UMPC styled PDA's, then surely its not for geeks anymore. You can bet your dollar that so many comanies will not be making products (or experimenting even) for a market whose time has not come yet.

The wince machines have always had quite a number of manufacturers making them, however it wasn't until Palm stumbled that the wince machines finally started to make headway and eventually dominate.

And there's always M$'s underhand tactics to consider. They could very well be using "marketing" dollars to bribe manufacturers to make these UMPCs even though most models never sell enough to make a profit.
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UMPC' may not necessarily mean Wince based UMPC's. Its too bad we don't see any other - but I am taking about UMPC's in a OS agnostic way - more about features and hardware.

While I know (and I indulge in it too) blaming Microsoft for market realities not agreeing with the way we see things is a natural and amusing pastime, I don't think either 3rd party mfrs or Microsoft will be spending big bucks unless there is a potential to sell it and for users to want it. Would you have though that people would go about buying $600 - $750 phones (yes mobile phones) 5 years back ? But Nokia says its N95 is its flagship product and Apple is about to make a kill in the next quarter with higher than expected (Wall street expectation) sales. Just examples.

A little bit of arm twisting on MS's behalf is true, but you can't arm-twist a whole market.
While it does take a shining product to lead the way, often times, its over several iterations of a product that market acceptance is finally achieved. That's the classic case of Wince PDA's (and I hate them). But reality is reality and more and more people are using them and smartphones.

So I don't see why the dumb masses will not accept PDA's with more features sometime in the future.
Talking about this dumb-masses term - ultimately in mass market economics, if the dumb mass market is endorsing a product , then there must be a quality to the product that is shining , irrespective of what geeks and niche-specialists think. In mass market, its the dumb masses who are the definitive specialist.

[Cyberdoc1971]

It's true about the dumb masses wanting and craving the UMPC's mostly for the "geek" effect, instead of a practical affordable device that can fit in their budget.

[nilch]

It's true about the dumb masses wanting and craving the UMPC's mostly for the "geek" effect, instead of a practical affordable device that can fit in their budget.
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Ah ! I am amused by the way you look down on the dumb-masses and make a summary judgement about "their" budgets.  

So while the dumb-masses try to be geekish, the geeks tell (or preach ?) them what is practical and can fit their budgets  - interesting twist  .. and did I say amusing too ?
 

[adf]

It's true about the dumb masses wanting and craving the UMPC's mostly for the "geek" effect, instead of a practical affordable device that can fit in their budget.
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Ah ! I am amused by the way you look down on the dumb-masses and make a summary judgement about "their" budgets.  

So while the dumb-masses try to be geekish, the geeks tell (or preach ?) them what is practical and can fit their budgets  - interesting twist  .. and did I say amusing too ?
 
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Actually I don't know anyone who owns a umpc/powerful pda who doesn't also have some other noticeable geeky traits-- always somehow involving linux, regardless of the os on the handheld.  Then again, I don't spend time in the parts of society where blackberries are prevalent, either, so possibly my perception is skewed

[Meanie]

It's true about the dumb masses wanting and craving the UMPC's mostly for the "geek" effect, instead of a practical affordable device that can fit in their budget.
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Ah ! I am amused by the way you look down on the dumb-masses and make a summary judgement about "their" budgets.  

So while the dumb-masses try to be geekish, the geeks tell (or preach ?) them what is practical and can fit their budgets  - interesting twist  .. and did I say amusing too ?
 
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dumb masses, i thought those were you guys

just kidding... but i guess i should have used the more political correct term of 'normal users', but i don't really like the term normal as it suggests a collection of people who need to adhere to a norm like this rotten concept of fashion. you gotta conform to the norm of being fashionable and hence buy and wear all that crap that everyone else is wearing. the same concept is used here. whatever mr average normal dude is using as a gadget is what everyone who considers himself/herself as normal needs to have, thus device xyz is popular with the normals and hence all other normals follow and buy it. umpc just have not reached the critical mass yet to be adopted by those normal users.

i personally don't like to use the term 'normal'. my preferred term for those people is 'imperfect clone'

[Cyberdoc1971]

Lol, sorry guys, I did not mean to use "geek" in a bad way, actually being a little "geeky" means that you keep up with what in and what is not with all the tech out there. As dfor the "dumb messes", that refers to people that have the impulse to have the newest and latesst, but not necessarily the greatest, as in these Win-powered UMPC's.

[T3_slider]

You consider these crappy Windows UMPCs the greatest?

[Cyberdoc1971]

You consider these crappy Windows UMPCs the greatest?
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Not really, they are a good attempt in a portable computing concept, but have a lot of shortcomings (price, dependability, etc), and because of the UMPC's...they have forced too much change in the PDA markets.

[adf]

Haha, your point about the phone+PDA converged device just reminded me why standalone PDAs are now dieing. The dumb masses don't realize that the more devices converge the crappier each function gets. My mom insists on having a DVD/VCR converged device (granted it's hard to find a quality VCR that doesn't contain a DVD player). But when you have a huge high-definition TV, you get way better quality if you buy a good standalone DVD player with more outputs than just component and S-video. (By the way, I'm not calling my mom stupid -- just technologically illiterate)

Perhaps when there is a UMPC/PDA/phone/television/toaster that fits in your pocket (and doesn't burn the toast) more people will buy UMPCs, but not until then. (Another problem, again relating to my technologically illiterate mother -- I'm always told that the screen on my Z is too small. It would be the same problem with UMPCs until they master that roll-out screen)

[edit]And yes, 20 years was just a made-up date. I tried to make it later in the future than I would think possible and for good reason. They said by 2000 we would live like the Jetsons. In the movie 2010: The year we make contact (or whatever it's called) their spaceships are like those in Star Trek (No, I'm not a Trekkie. I hate that show -- and I definitely don't speak Klingon). Although I can't deny that in 2010 we will have that kind of space technology because it is only 2007, I am, needless to say, VERY doubtful that we will have that technology in 3 years. Yes, basically I'm trying to cover my butt.[/edit]
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Speaking of 20 years and displays--I find i still like the idea of an eyewear display, at least in theory. The wearable computer with an eyeglass display was the 80's future concept, if I recall correctly.

[Cyberdoc1971]

Good Idea as I recall, it is still a concept being worked on. Last I had heard the-gadgeteer.com had an article on wearable computers, and there are still some small companies making some.

[T3_slider]

Except I absolutely despise glasses. And I need them -- so I opt for contacts. Even if my glasses could perform some awesome computing, I would never wear them. But perhaps others are more willing than I...

That's the problem with all of these mobile technologies. There will never be a perfect device. If it's really usable, it's too big. If it's small, the screen is too small to be usable and the controls are awkward. People are fickle. As much as I dislike the iPhone, it seems to be the only device trying to revolutionize mobile computing -- which is needed in order to have a really usable yet mobile device. New input methods allow for more screen real estate, making the device more usable for mobile computing. The Z is great, but if I didn't have a backpack (I usually do since I'm a student) I probably wouldn't carry it around with me. It's just too big. Plus, if it got any smaller, it wouldn't be usable.

It's a catch-22. Until we get magical chips implanted in our brains that overlap computing images over top of the images seen from our eyes, thereby making a truly invisible and mobile computer that we can't even feel, nothing will be perfect. Plus, what kind of moron would get a chip implanted in their brain?