Estimation of Astro shipment based on Cosmo Campaign

[makoshark]

I created Astro estimated event dates based on Cosmo campaign.

It looks like PR1 samples were introduced on 7/12/19 for Cosmo.
For Astro, this date was 9/5/21.

PR1 Samples: Cosmo-07/12/19 >> Astro-09/05/21

PR2 Production Run: Cosmo-08/16/19 >> Astro-10/10/21
Production Start: Cosmo-09/03/19 >> Astro-10/28/21
GMS Approval: Cosmo-09/06/19 >> Astro-10/31/21
Ready for Assembly: Cosmo-09/18/19 >> Astro-11/12/21
First Mass Production: Cosmo-09/26/19 >> Astro-11/20/21
Start to Ship: Cosmo-10/12/19 >> Astro-12/06/21
Backers from Japan, USA: Cosmo-11/15/19 >> Astro-01/09/22
On the way to Europe(Germany, UK): Cosmo-11/22/19 >> Astro-01/16/22
3500 out of 4000 Produced, 80% of Backers received Cosmo-12/09/19 >> Astro-02/02/22

I am hoping much earlier schedule for Astro, but if it goes similar timeline, many of backers will receive Astro Dec 2021 - Jan 2022.

[Daniel W]

Add to that further post-Covid delays, the ongoing electricity shortage in China, the general chip shortage and the Chinese New Year in early February, and the Astro might end up a full year late...

I did some similar, though cruder, estimations for the Cosmo, https://www.oesf.org/forum/index.php?topic=35829 and it ended up arriving much later than my estimations. While it would be nice to get it before Christmas, as long as my Cosmo works, I am in no real hurry this time (getting by on a Gemini while waiting for a Cosmo was painful, though). That said, I do look forward to not needing the CoDi, perhaps finally getting a working compass and a better camera.

[ArchiMark]

Based upon PC's update today, that production should start after the Chinese holidays, so about October 10th....

I guessing we'll be lucky to see our Astro's by Christmas....and might be after New Year........

So it goes.....

 

Mark

[Zarhan]

That said, I do look forward to not needing the CoDi, perhaps finally getting a working compass and a better camera.

The camera issue was addressed by Shuntcap's custom builds of the camera software. The primary feature I'm interested in would be better speech quality for phone calls...

[makoshark]

I did some similar, though cruder, estimations for the Cosmo, https://www.oesf.org/forum/index.php?topic=35829 and it ended up arriving much later than my estimations.

I saw your post.  It looks like you have more details and added the actual result!!
I will put the actual dates if I have time, too.

I am currently using Blackberry KeyOne and planning to use Astro as a daily driver. 
I wish I can get Astro before Christmas...

[Daniel W]

The camera issue was addressed by Shuntcap's custom builds of the camera software.

While Shuntcaps lovely custom builds alleviated multiple quality issues, they are, by neccesity, rather basic, lacking even white balance control, and the viewfinder is, for technical reasons, pretty slow. I am, however, mainly looking forward to better camera hardware, with better optical resolution, faster and more accurate focus, better dynamic range etc. A main camera module clearly surpassing my 2013 Samsung would be nice.

Oh, well, I'm getting off topic. Would mass production actually begin on Monday (October 11), we could perhaps push all the estimated dates 17 days earlier (than October 28), but as I read Update #40, Planet will place the order for mass production on Monday, not actually begin mass production, so I think the actual date when the factory begins assembling Astros for backers, might remain to be determined. That said, I'd love to be wrong.

[Daniel W]

The Astro update #43 (10/27/21) provided these "guesstimates"
16th November - All materials arrive for PCB mass production - many have already arrived
End of November - Astro PCB mass production
30th November - All materials to arrive for Astro Assembly
1st half of December - Astro Assembly and packaging
Mid-December - 1st Shipment of Astro Slide from factory to Planet warehouse

Fitting the events above, as best as I could, to makoshark's milestones, gave me these earliest possible dates:
(PCB) Production Start: Cosmo-09/03/19 >> Astro-10/28/21 >> #43-11/16/21
GMS Approval: Cosmo-09/06/19 >> Astro-10/31/21 >> #43-ongoing as of 11/05/21
Ready for Assembly: Cosmo-09/18/19 >> Astro-11/12/21 >> #43-11/30/21
First Mass Production: Cosmo-09/26/19 >> Astro-11/20/21 >> #43-12/01/21
Start to Ship: Cosmo-10/12/19 >> Astro-12/06/21 >> #43-12/16/21

By "earliest possible" I mean that the "End of November" Astro PCB mass production cannot possibly begin earlier than 11/16/21, when the required materials are expected to have arrived, and will likely not begin until a few days later. Likewise, the factory cannot possibly be ready for assembly earlier than 11/30/21, when the materials for that are expected to have arrived, and will likely need a few more days to set everything up. Further, shipments from their warehouse cannot possibly begin earlier than "mid December", when the first shipment to the warehouse is expected, and will, based on the Gemini and Cosmo, not begin until a week or two later. December 16 isn't specifically mentioned by Planet anywhere, I just picked that as the middle of December.

One date to keep in mind might be Saturday 01/29/22, which, as far as I know, is the last working day before the, certainly well deserved, Chinese New Year holidays. New Year's Eve is on Monday 01/31/22 and on Tuesday 02/01/21, the year of the Water Tiger begins. What hasn't left China by 01/29, isn't likely to go anywhere until after the Lantern Festival on Tuesday 02/15/22.

[Daniel W]

Update #45 says that (empty) printed circuit board manufacturing is "slightly delayed" due to Covid. PCB components mounting is moved to mid-December, immediately followed by packaging and assembly. The factory still expects to ship the first units to Planet before Christmas, who will immediately ship them onward to backers. That could, if accurate, mean approximately this:

First Mass Production: Cosmo-09/26/19 >> Astro-11/20/21 >> #45-12/16/21
Start to Ship: Cosmo-10/12/19 >> Astro-12/06/21 >> #45-12/23/21

Though I'd love to be wrong, I do personally, at this point, given how absolutely choked both international and domestic logistics tends to be around Christmas, not expect one single backer to receive their mass produced Astro in 2021, and I suspect some of the less common keyboard layouts will, again, get caught up in the CNY.

[ArchiMark]

Given the recent update and PC history on the prior devices and Astro, I'm amending my previous guess (in post up above)....

I now assume that I might see my Astro in February....hopefully, latest date will be March....

Mark

[Daniel W]

According to Update #46, the Astro reached mass production on the same day as the launch of the James Webb Space Telescope, a day also known, in parts of the world, as Christmas Day.

The direct Vimeo link embedded in the update mail doesn't work, and the video isn't listed (currently anyway) on the Planet Computers Vimeo user page. The link via Indiegogo does work and does lead to where it's supposed to, but it's half a mile long and I'm not too fond of links that redirects to another domain than the one in the actual link, so, in case others might feel like me, or just wants a link that's feasible to share, here's a Vimeo link that, at the time of writing this, does work:

https://player.vimeo.com/video/659960664

The video itself isn't too exciting, a six second vertical video clip of, I would presume, finished Astro circuit boards coming out of a soldering machine, ending with a semi-closeup of four (still joined pairwise) circuit boards.

One perhaps interesting detail is the unusually narrow width to height ratio of the video. Rather than the usual 16:9 it's (very close to) 19.5:9 which also, according to the Indiegogo specifications, happens to be the aspect ratio of the 2340x1080 pixel screen of the Astro (it's rounded to 20:9 in the specs, but 2340/1080 = 19.5). It wouldn't inconceivable that a device with a 19.5:9 screen has a 19.5:9 video mode, so perhaps those six seconds were recorded on an actual Astro?

[bolderz]

Planet Update #48 shows Astro assembly production actually starting on Christmas Day 25 Dec.

[makoshark]

Following the COSMO's schedule, the first shipment started about two weeks from the assembly production!!  It is coming!

[Daniel W]

While not strictly on topic, update #50 mentions that Planet themselves has received three mass produced Astros (for the CES) and shows pictures of several dozen devices undergoing final quality control. Reasonably, the factory will try to finish and ship as many devices they can this week and next, before their new year holidays. It seems update #51 will add more details on production and shipping, so, yes, while still some time away, actual deliveries should start soon.

[Daniel W]

As can be read in this thread, deliveries to Japan began on February 1 2022. The rest of us will have to keep calm until some date after the Lantern Festival on Tuesday, February 15.

According to the OP, once Cosmo deliveries had begun, it took a little less than one month to reach "80% of Backers received Cosmo". Back then, I had to wait about 1½ months longer than that, and I was far from last to get mine. Now, we also need to factor in the CNY (roughly half a month).

If I just add up those days, that would suggest I might get mine in early May, provided there are no further Covid issues... so, well, my guess, back in October that the Astro might end up a full year late, might turn out to be correct, at least for us with the less common keyboard layouts.

Edit 2022-Feb-08: As I just happened to reread my contribution confirmation from Friday, April 3, 2020, I noticed that my "Early-bird Special" had an original estimated delivery of March 2021, not May, so yeah... a full year late is no longer just a possibility at this point, it's absolutely for sure. However...

While I was eager to get my Cosmo, this time, I am in no hurry. My Cosmo still works well for what it is. A few keys are getting unreliable, though I think a good cleaning should help. Since I stopped using the CoDi, my battery, once again, lasts a whole day. While I expect that to get worse over time, the battery in my Gemini is still OK, so I think my Cosmo will hold up long enough.

[makoshark]

In Anano-san's vlog live at MWC22 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uE6Jge0YTpM), Dr. Janko told her that 800 to 1000 Japanese Kana keyboard units will be shipped out this week...

This could complete Japanese Kana keyboard initial production... so next could be US English keyboard that seems like the second largest keyboard order group.

Edit 2022-03-12: I watched again carefully... 800-1000 Dr. Janko said was not total number shipped but total number waiting Kana keyboard... so it will be a little longer to wait.  Besides, according to IGG comments, next production run seems like UK English keyboard.